

Bifurcation Analysis of Newcastle Disease Eco-epidemiological Model in the Presence of Vaccination: A Case of the Backyard Chicken
Abstract
Β
most frequently as a disease of Avians (e.g., chicken, ducks, pigeons, guinea fowls and other wild birds) that acquire viruses from infected Avians or a contaminated environment. In this paper, we present a deterministic eco-epidemiological model for Newcastle disease transmission in backyard chicken population in the presence of vaccination as a control measure to study the nature of the equilibrium points. The analytical and numerical methods were rigorously presented. Mathematical analysis of the equilibrium point revealed that the model exhibits forward bifurcation. The analysis show that a disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable for effective reproduction number π π<1, and unstable when π π>1. On the other hand, the endemic equilibrium point is stable when π π<1, and unstable otherwise. Furthermore, the study revealed that increasing the vaccination rate leads to an increase in protective immunity against Newcastle disease, and hence reduces the devastating effect of the disease in a chicken population. The paper advises that stakeholders in backyard chicken growers invest on intervention that ensures that effective reproduction number is below a unit for successful control of the Newcastle disease.
Β
Keywords
References
Alders, R., P. Spradbrow & M. Young. 2009. Village Chickens, Poverty Alleviation and the Sustainable Control of Newcastle Disease. Proceedings of An International Conference Held in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, 5β7 October 2005. ACIAR Proceedings No 131, 235.
Alexander, D. J., J. G. Bell & R. G. Alders. 2004. FAO Technology Review: Newcastle Disease With Special Emphasis on Its Effect on Village Chickens. FAO Animal Production and Health, 4(ISSN 0254β6019): 55.
Alexander, D. J., R. J. Manvell, J. P. Lowings, K. M. Frost, M. S. Collins, P. H. Russell & J. E. Smith,1997. Antigenic Diversity and Similarities Detected in Avian Paramyxovirus Type 1 (Newcastle Disease Virus) Isolates Using Monoclonal Antibodies. Avian Pathology, 26(2): 399β418.
Bhunu, C. P., W. Garira & Z. Mukandavire. 2009. Modeling HIV / AIDS and Tuberculosis Coinfection. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 71, 1745β1780.
Brown, V. R. & S. N. Bevins. 2017. A Review of Virulent Newcastle Disease Viruses in the United States and the Role of Wild Birds in Viral Persistence and Spread. Veterinary Research, 48(1): 1β15. https://doi.org/10.1186/S13567-017-0475-9.
Buonomo, B. & C. Vargas-De-LeΓ³n. 2013. Mathematical Biosciences Stability and Bifurcation Analysis of a Vector-Bias Model of Malaria Transmission. Mathematical Biosciences, 242(1): 59β67. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Mbs.2012.12.001.
Castillo-Chavez, C. 2004. Dynamical Models of Tuberculosis and Their Applications. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 1(2): 361β404.
Chingonikaya, E. E. & F. S. Salehe. 2018. Contribution of Local Chicken Production Towards Improving Peoples Wellbeing : a Case of Peri-Urban Areas of Kinondoni District , Tanzania. Asian Journal of Advances in Agricultural Research, 5(2): 1β11.
Chuma, F., G. G. Mwanga & V. G. Masanja. 2019. Application of Optimal Control Theory To Newcastle Disease Dynamics in Village Chicken by Considering Wild Birds As Reservoir of Disease Virus. Journal of Applied Mathematics. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/3024965.
Chuma, F., G. Mwanga & G. Kajunguri. 2018. Modeling the Role of Wild Birds and Environment in the Dynamics of Newcastle Diseasein Village Chicken. Asian Journal of Mathematics and Applications. 2018(November): 23.
Daut, E. F., G. Lahodny, M. J. Peterson & R. Ivanek. 2016. Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: a Modeling Approach. Plos ONE, 11(1): 1β29. https://doi.org/10.1371/Journal.Pone.0147517.
Dortmans, J. C., G. Koch, P. J. Rottier & B. P. Peeters. 2011. Virulence of Newcastle Disease Virus: What Is Known So Far? Veterinary Research, 42(1): 1β11. https://doi.org/10.1186/1297-9716-42-122.
Driessche, P. Van Den & J. Watmough. 2002. Reproduction Numbers and Sub-Threshold Endemic Equilibria for Compartmental Models of Disease Transmission. Mathematical Biosciences, 180: 29β48.
Edmund, J .R & V. Mwenda. 2018. Poultry Subsector in Tanzania: a Quick Scan. Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
Foppa, I. M. 2015. The Basic Reproductive Number of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus: An Empirical Approach. Journal of Mathematical Biology, January 2006, 13. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00285-005-0337-3.
Hartemink, N. A., Randolph, S. E., Davis, S. A. & Heesterbeek, J. A. P. 2008. The Basic Reproduction Number for Complex Disease Systems : Defining R 0 for Tick-Borne Infections. JSTOR, 171(6): 743-754. https://doi.org/10.1086/587530.Hossain, M., M. Islam, M. Bari, M. Torab & M. Mondal. 2013. Seroprevalence of Newcastle Disease Virus in Backyard Chickens At Gazipur District of Bangladesh. International Journal of Natural Sciences, 3(1β4): 22β25.
Hugo, A., O. D. Makinde, S. Kumar & F. F. Chibwana. 2017. Optimal Control and Cost Effectiveness Analysis for Newcastle Disease Eco-Epidemiological Model in Tanzania. Journal of Biological Dynamics, 11(1),190β209. https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2016.1258093.
Kelatlhegile, G. R. & M. Kgosimore. 2016. Bifurcation Analysis of Vertical Transmission Model With Preventive Strategy. 0, 492β498. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Joems.2015.10.001
Lucchetti, J., M. Roy & M. Martcheva. 2009. An Avian Influenza Model and Its Fit To Human Avian Influenza Cases. Advances in Disease Epidemiology, 1, 1β30.
Mafuta, P., J. Mushanyu, S. Mushayabasa & C. Bhunu. 2013. βTransmission Dynamics of Trichomoniasis in Bisexualsβ Without the 'E' Transmission Dynamics of Trichomoniasis in Bisexuals β Without the β E .β World Journal of Modelling and Simulation, 9(4), 302β320.
Mcdermott, J., P. Coleman & T. Randolph. 2000. Methods for Assessing the Impact of Infectious Diseases of Livestock - Their Role in Improving the Control of Newcastle Disease in Southern Africa. Aciar.
Mengesha, M. 2012. Indigeneous Chicken Production and the Innate Characteristics. Asian Journal of Poultry Science, 6(2): 56β64.
Michael, S., J. Stapleton & B. I. Shapiro. 2017. Tanzania Livestock Master Plan: Key Findings. ILRI Internal Report, Brief 1 Oc(Nairobi, Kenya), 1-4.
Mlozi, M. R. S., A.V.M. Kakengi, U. M. Minga, A. M. Mtambo & J. E. Olsen. 2003. Marketing of Free Range Local Chickens in Morogoro and Kilosa Urban Markets, Tanzania. Livestock Research for Rural Development, 15(14).
Munir, M. T. & M. R. Chowdhury. 2016. Emergence of New Sub-Genotypes of Newcastle Disease Virus in Pakistan. J Avian Res, 2(1): 1β7.
Nyerere, N. & L. S. Luboobi. 2014. Bifurcation and Stability Analysis of the Dynamics of Tuberculosis Model Incorporating, Vaccination, Screening and Treatment. Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci.
Oluwayelu, D. O., A. I. Adebiyi, I. Olaniyan, P. Ezewele & O. Aina. 2014. Occurrence of Newcastle Disease and Infectious Bursal Disease Virus Antibodies in Double-Spurred Francolins in Nigeria. Journal of Veterinary Medicine. 2014, 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/106898.
Perry, B. D., Kalpravidh, ), P. G. Coleman, H. S. Horst, J. J. Mcdermott, T. F. Randolph & L. J. Gleeson,1999. The Economic Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Control in South-East Asia: a Preliminary Assessment With Special Reference to Thailand. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz, 18(2): 478β497.
Sharif, A., T. Ahmad, M. Umer, A. Rehman & Z. Hussain. 2014. Prevention and Control of Newcastle Disease. International Journal of Agriculture Innovations and Research, 3(2),454β460.
Tilahun, M. 2017. Backward Bifurcation in SIRS Malaria Model. 1-22. Http://Arxiv.Org/Abs/1707.00924.
Yongolo, M. G., A. Machangu & U. Minga. 2002. Newcastle Disease and Infectious Bursal Disease Among Free-Range Village Chickens in Tanzania. Characteristics and Parameters of Family Poultry Production in Africa, 107β116.
Yongolo, M. G., H. Christensen, K. Handberg, U. Minga & J. E. Olsen. 2011. on the Origin and Diversity of Newcastle Disease Virus in Tanzania. The Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.