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Bifurcation Analysis of Newcastle Disease Eco-epidemiological Model in the Presence of Vaccination: A Case of the Backyard Chicken

Furaha Chuma, Gasper G. Mwanga



most frequently as a disease of Avians (e.g., chicken, ducks, pigeons, guinea fowls and other wild birds) that acquire viruses from infected Avians or a contaminated environment. In this paper, we present a deterministic eco-epidemiological model for Newcastle disease transmission in backyard chicken population in the presence of vaccination as a control measure to study the nature of the equilibrium points. The analytical and numerical methods were rigorously presented. Mathematical analysis of the equilibrium point revealed that the model exhibits forward bifurcation. The analysis show that a disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable for effective reproduction number 𝑅𝑒<1, and unstable when 𝑅𝑒>1. On the other hand, the endemic equilibrium point is stable when 𝑅𝑒<1, and unstable otherwise. Furthermore, the study revealed that increasing the vaccination rate leads to an increase in protective immunity against Newcastle disease, and hence reduces the devastating effect of the disease in a chicken population. The paper advises that stakeholders in backyard chicken growers invest on intervention that ensures that effective reproduction number is below a unit for successful control of the Newcastle disease.



bifurcation, Newcastle disease, eco-epidemiological model, backyard chicken, vaccination

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