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Effect of Meteorological Elements on the Dynamics of Bacillary and Amoebic Dysentery Disease:A Mathematical Approach

Furaha Chuma, Rigobert C. Ngeleja


 Bacillary dysentery, commonly known as shigellosis, is a potentially perilous and extremely contagious bacterial infection of the colon caused by—but not limited to—bacteria shigella, bacillus, E. coli, Yersinia, and the parasite amoeba. This paper formulates and analyses a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of dysentery epidemic that incorporate the effects of weather variations. It examines the stability of equilibria and compute the basic reproduction number that is coupled with the time-periodic model, and establishes results on the threshold dynamics. In the non-autonomous case, it investigates the disease extinction and uniform persistence. Results suggest that the dynamics of bacillary dysentery is appreciably affected by climate change, which also plays a significant role in whittling the long-term dynamics of the epidemic.

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